A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
